116: Watching, Watched, and Walking Away
Canada’s Five Eyes Dilemma, SpaceX’s Spy Grid, and the Snowbird Sell-Off
Today’s issue combines three different but somewhat related topics:
Is Canada on the Brink of Being Expelled from Five Eyes?
SpaceX, the NRO, and the Future of Spy Satellites
Canadian Snowbirds Bailing on Florida?
Is Canada on the Brink of Being Expelled from Five Eyes?
Rumors and reports of U.S. officials considering Canada’s removal from the Five Eyes intelligence alliance raise serious questions about the future of national security and geopolitical trust.
At the heart of this tension is a mix of political grievances and shifting strategic interests. The Trump administration, and now parts of the U.S. national security establishment, have expressed frustration with Canada’s policies on China, defense spending, and trade. Some officials, like Peter Navarro, have gone so far as to suggest that Canada should be removed as a means of pressuring the country into alignment with U.S. foreign policy objectives. Such a move would fundamentally alter Canada’s position on the global intelligence stage, potentially forcing the country to seek new alliances or drastically rethink its security posture.
For Canada, the consequences of being cut from Five Eyes would be severe. Intelligence cooperation with allies would be weakened, limiting Canada’s ability to track threats, counter cyberattacks, and participate in global security operations. A rupture in this relationship could also push Canada to either invest heavily in independent intelligence capabilities or forge new partnerships outside of its traditional Western allies—perhaps with European or Indo-Pacific nations wary of U.S. hegemony.
Beyond intelligence-sharing, this move signals a deeper instability in the global order. If one of the longest-standing intelligence alliances can be upended over political disagreements, what does that mean for NATO? For NORAD? For the future of collective security itself? The prospect of Canada being removed from Five Eyes is not just about intelligence—it’s about the shifting nature of authority in a world where traditional alliances are being renegotiated, and smaller nations are being forced to pick sides in an increasingly volatile geopolitical landscape.
SpaceX, the NRO, and the Future of Spy Satellites
A recent report reveals that SpaceX is working with the U.S. National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) to build a powerful new spy satellite network—one that could drastically expand the surveillance capabilities of the U.S. intelligence community. The project, known as Starshield, appears to be an extension of the company’s Starlink satellite constellation, leveraging SpaceX’s dominance in commercial space operations to create an orbital intelligence apparatus at an unprecedented scale.
The NRO, responsible for the design and operation of America’s most advanced reconnaissance satellites, has traditionally maintained tight control over its assets. That it is now outsourcing a key element of its next-generation surveillance infrastructure to SpaceX signals a major shift. Instead of launching a few highly classified satellites, the new approach will rely on a large-scale, low-Earth orbit (LEO) constellation—mirroring Starlink’s model of mass deployment. If Starshield follows the same playbook, it could provide real-time, persistent global surveillance, creating an intelligence network with far-reaching military and political consequences.
To recap: Elon Musk is using his unparalleled space launch infrastructure to construct Starshield, a “proliferated constellation” of hundreds of NRO spy satellites that are designed to communicate with Starlink, his existing network of thousands of communications satellites. This means that more than half of the active satellites in the sky are facilitating an NRO/SpaceX mass surveillance program that is intended to provide near-continuous imagery of the entire planet for US intelligence agencies, reportedly at even higher resolutions than previous projects. If the NRO was just spying through “Keyholes” before, they’ve now thrown the metaphorical door open.
The merging of commercial space technology with military intelligence is accelerating, and with it, the erosion of public oversight. The NRO’s reliance on SpaceX suggests that the future of intelligence won’t be determined solely by nation-states but by the companies that control the launch systems, the satellite networks, and the data they collect. If Starshield becomes the backbone of American orbital surveillance, it won’t just be an asset of the intelligence community—it will be a private-sector empire, shaping global security from above.
Canadian Snowbirds Bailing on Florida?
The Florida real estate market is experiencing a sharp increase in property listings, reflecting a shift in buyer sentiment, particularly among Canadians who have historically been major investors in the state’s vacation home market. As of early 2025, Florida had over 157,000 homes for sale, a 33% increase from the previous year. This rise in inventory is occurring alongside economic pressures that are discouraging foreign buyers. Higher mortgage rates, now hovering around 7%, have made financing more expensive, while soaring insurance premiums—up by as much as 400% in certain regions—have increased the cost of ownership (New York Post). For Canadians, these factors are compounded by a weakened exchange rate, making U.S. property purchases increasingly cost-prohibitive. As a result, a growing number of Canadian homeowners are now selling off their Florida properties (MPA Magazine), adding to the rising inventory and potentially leading to price corrections.
This exodus of Canadian buyers and sellers is likely to have broader implications for Florida’s economy, which has long benefited from seasonal residents. Canadian snowbirds contribute significantly through property taxes, tourism, and local spending, particularly in areas like Southwest Florida and the Gulf Coast, where foreign homeownership is traditionally high. Fewer Canadian buyers mean less demand for vacation properties, which could extend listing times and soften home prices as supply continues to outpace demand. This shift not only affects real estate professionals but also local businesses, from restaurants to healthcare providers, that rely on the seasonal influx of Canadian residents.
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